This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory.

"This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. In the first stage of risk, the uninsured face dissatisfactions of worries and planning difficulties (avoided by the insured), also perhaps positive satisfactions of thrills (missed out on by the insured). In the second stage when the risk is passed the uninsured may face the dissatisfactions of ridicule and blame if they learn that they were unlucky. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory which are irrationally atemporal (single stage) theories, ignoring the initial risky stage to be endured or enjoyed before learning whether one has been lucky or unlucky. TOC:Introduction.- A Serious Specific Scenario for a Serious Risky Choice Theory.- What Expected Utility Theory Really is: What is Notion of Risk Aversion Excludes.- Primary and Secondary Satisfactions.- The von Neumann-Morgenstern Contradiction when Including Secondary Satisfactions Solved with Stages of Knowledge.- Material Secondary Satisfactions and Planning.- Misconceptions About Secondary Satisfactions.- Biases in Experimental Set-ups that Ignore Secondary Satisfactions.- SKAT, The Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory.- Self Report Versus Scientist's Own Introspection and Related Reliability Issues.- Aspects.- Willingness to Pay Compared with Choices in a Dictated Choice Set.- The Role of Secondary Satisfactions.- Algorithms Versus Global Maximising Procedures.- Ramifications"

Theory and Methodology.- A Serious Specific Scenario for a Serious Risky Choice Theory.- What Expected Utility Theory Really Is: What Its Notion of Risk Aversion Excludes.- Primary and Secondary Satisfactions.- The von Neumann-Morgenstern Contradiction When Including Secondary Satisfactions Solved with Stages of Knowledge.- Material Secondary Satisfactions and Planning.- Misconceptions About Secondary Satisfactions.- Biases in Experimental Set-ups That Ignore Secondary Satisfactions.- SKAT, The Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory.- Self Reports Versus Scientists' Own Introspection and Related Reliability Issues.- Experiments.- Participants and Their Choices.- Willingness to Pay Compared with Choices in a Dictated Choice Set.- The Role of Secondary Satisfactions.- Algorithms Versus Global Maximising Procedures.- Insurance Provision by Governments and Firms.- Summary and Directions for Further Research.