Futures for a Declining City: Simulations for the Cleveland Area discusses the processes associated with decrease in urban population or "urban decline¿ and other measures of urban size or function. This book describes the case study that analyzes what will happen to a declining metropolitan area and its central city if current trends on urban decline continue, and how that outcome might be affected by various policies designed to counteract further loss. This case study focuses on the Cleveland Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) and its central city, Cleveland. The likely future course of urban decline acquired through quantitative estimates and methodologies for comparing policies is also covered in this text. This publication is aimed primarily at economists, urban planners, and political scientists, including those who formulate policies affecting declining urban areas.

Preface1. Introduction and Summary The Nature of This Study The Key Urban Variables Used The Specific Policy Packages Analyzed Findings Concerning the Continuation of Present Trends (The Base Case) Findings Concerning Alternative Futures for the Cleveland SMSA Findings Concerning City Revitalization Policies in General2. Continuation of Present Trends and Policies - The Base Case Concept Employment, Population, and Income Housing and Household Developments Fiscal Factors Transportation3. The Analysis of Future Policy Changes Introduction Impacts on Location of Employers Impacts on Location of Households Secondary Impacts Fiscal Impacts Transportation Impacts4. A Job Stimulus Package Concept Policies Results Two Variants: Income Transfers and Jobs Targeted to City Residents5. A Housing Rehabilitation Package Concept Policies Impacts Housing Tables Other Changes from the Base Case Implications6. A Transit Improvement Package Concept Policies Methodology Results In-City Variant Conclusions7. A Fiscal Equalization Package Concept Policies and Immediate Fiscal Effects Location Response to Fiscal Equalization Additional Fiscal Effects Summary8. A Suburban Growth Control Package Concept Policies Impacts Housing Tables Other Changes from the Base Case Implications 9. The Impact of an All-Out Revitalization Strategy and Comparisons among the Policy Packages The All-Out Revitalization Package and Its Impacts Comparison and Interpretation of Policy Packages Sensitivity to Secondary Effects Assumptions10. Energy Scarcity Scenarios Adjustment Mechanisms High-Cost Scenario Severe Shortage Scenario Conclusion11. RecommendationsAppendix A. Computation of Secondary Effects and Transportation VariablesAppendix B. Detailed Projections and ResultsAppendix C. AcronymsIndex