Beschreibung:
Risk models are models of uncertainty, engineered for some purposes. They are "educated guesses and hypotheses" assessed and valued in terms of well-defined future states and their consequences. They are engineered to predict, to manage countable and accountable futures and to provide a frame of reference within which we may believe that "uncertainty is tamed." Quantitative-statistical tools are used to reconcile our information, experience and other knowledge with hypotheses that both serve as the foundation of risk models and also value and price risk. Risk models are therefore common to most professions, each with its own methods and techniques based on their needs, experience and a wisdom accrued over long periods of time.
Risk: The Convergence.- Risk Management Everywhere.- Probability Elements: An Applied Refresher.- Multivariate Probability Distributions: Applications and Risk Models.- Temporal Risk Processes.- Risk Measurement.- Risk Valuation.- Risk Economics and the Extended CCAPM.- Risk Pricing Models: Applications.- Uncertainty Economics.- Strategic Risk Control and Regulation.- Games, Risk, and Uncertainty.