Every day, biologists in parkas, raincoats, and rubber boots go into the field to capture and mark a variety of animal species. Back in the office, statisticians create analytical models for the field biologists' data. But many times, representatives of the two professions do not fully understand one another's roles. This book bridges this gap by helping biologists understand state-of-the-art statistical methods for analyzing capture-recapture data. In so doing, statisticians will also become more familiar with the design of field studies and with the real-life issues facing biologists. Reliable outcomes of capture-recapture studies are vital to answering key ecological questions. Is the population increasing or decreasing? Do more or fewer animals have a particular characteristic? In answering these questions, biologists cannot hope to capture and mark entire populations. And frequently, the populations change unpredictably during a study. Thus, increasingly sophisticated models have been employed to convert data into answers to ecological questions. This book, by experts in capture-recapture analysis, introduces the most up-to-date methods for data analysis while explaining the theory behind those methods. Thorough, concise, and portable, it will be immensely useful to biologists, biometricians, and statisticians, students in both fields, and anyone else engaged in the capture-recapture process.

List of Illustrations ixList of Tables xiPreface xviiChapter One: Introduction to the Handbook by Bryan F. J. Manly, Trent L. McDonald, and Steven C. Amstrup 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Overview of chapters 2 to 8 31.3 Maximum Likelihood with Capture-Recapture Methods 91.4 Model Selection Procedures 171.5 Notation 19
Chapter Two: Classical Closed-population Capture-Recapture Models by Anne Chao and Richard M. Huggins 222.1 Introduction 222.2 Structure of Capture-Recapture Experiments and Data 232.3 Early Models and Estimators 262.4 Limitations of Early Models and the Motivation for More General Models 342.5 Chapter Summary 35
Chapter Three: Classical Open-population Capture-Recapture Models by Kenneth H. Pollock and Russell Alpizar-Jara 363.1 Introduction 363.2 The Original Jolly-Seber Model 383.3 The Jolly-Seber Likelihood Components 443.4 Restrictions and Generalizations of the Jolly-Seber Model 453.5 Age-dependent Models 463.6 Goodness-of-Fit and Model Selection Issues 473.7 Examples 483.8 Conclusions 553.9 Chapter Summary 55
Chapter Four: Modern Closed-population Capture-Recapture Models by Anne Chao and Richard M. Huggins 584.1 Introduction 584.2 Discrete-time Models with Unequal Catchabilities 584.3 Continuous-time Models 784.4 Computing Considerations 854.5 Chapter Summary 86
Chapter Five: Modern Open-population Capture-Recapture Models by James D. Nichols 885.1 Introduction 885.2 Conditional Single-age Models 895.3 Conditional Multiple-age Models 1025.4 Reverse-time Models 1075.5 Unconditional Models 1095.6 The Robust Design 1165.7 Discussion 1205.8 Chapter Summary 121
Chapter Six: Tag-recovery Models by John M. Hoenig, Kenneth H. Pollock, and William Hearn 1246.1 Introduction 1246.2 Assumptions of Brownie Models 1286.3 Interpretation of the Tag-recovery Rate Parameter 1286.4 Functional Linkage Between the Exploitation Rate and the Survival Rate 1316.5 Instantaneous Rate Models for Estimating Harvest and Natural Mortality 1316.6 Diagnostics and Tests of Assumptions 1326.7 Preventing and Dealing with Failures of Assumptions 1346.8 Chapter Summary 140
Chapter Seven: Joint Modeling of Tag-recovery and Live-resighting Data by Richard J. Barker 1427.1 Introduction 1427.2 Data Structure 1447.3 Simple Models 1457.4 More General Models 1567.5 Model Fitting and Assessment 1577.6 Tag Misreads and Tag Loss 1617.7 Computing Considerations 1617.8 Chapter Summary 163
Chapter Eight: Multistate Models by Carl J. Schwarz 1658.1 Introduction 1658.2 The Arnason-Schwarz Model 1668.3 The Jolly-Seber Approach 1778.4 Multisample Stratified Closed Populations 1878.5 Multisample Stratified Open Populations 1928.6 Chapter Summary 194
Chapter Nine: Examples by Trent L. McDonald, Steven C. Amstrup, Eric V. Regehr, and Bryan F. J. Manly 1949.1 Introduction 1969.2 Open-population Analyses of Data on the European Dipper 1989.3 The Huggins Closed-population Model Applied to the European Dipper Data 2319.4 Assessing Goodness-of-Fit 2369.5 Horvitz-Thompson Open-population Size Estimates 2419.6 A Multistate (Multistrata) Model 2459.7 Polar Bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea 2479.8 Dead Recoveries of Mallard Ducks 2549.9 Chapter Summary 263
Chapter Ten: Capture-Recapture Methods in Practice by Bryan F. J. Manly, Steven C. Amstrup, and Trent L. McDonald 26610.1 Introduction 26610.2 Closed-population Models 26610.3 Open-population Models 26710.4 Tag-recovery Models 26910.5 Other Models 27010.6 Model Selection 27110.7 Known Ages 272
Appendix 275A.1 Capability Matrix for Common Capture-Recapture Software Packages 275A.2 General and Contact Information for Common Capture-Recapture Software Packages Listed in Table A.1 277
References 281Contributor's Notes 301Index 303