This new book features selected papers from Paul Meehl's, Psychodiagnosis, as well as other new material. The reader is organized into five areas: Theory building and appraisal-how we discover and test the true causal relations of psy

Contents: Preface. Part I: Theory Building and Theory Appraisal. Construct Validity in Psychological Tests. High School Yearbooks: A Reply to Schwarz. Nuisance Variables and the Ex Post Facto Design. Theoretical Risks and Tabular Asterisks: Sir Karl, Sir Ronald, and the Slow Progress of Soft Psychology. Appraising and Amending Theories: The Strategy of Lakatosian Defense and Two Principles That Warrant It. Part II: Specific Etiology. Specific Etiology and Other Forms of Strong Influence: Some Quantitative Meanings. Specific Genetic Etiology, Psychodynamics, and Therapeutic Nihilism. Part III: Diagnosis and Prediction. Antecendent Probability and the Efficiency of Psychometric Signs, Patterns, or Cutting Scores. Problem Sets and Solutions for Bayes Theorem, Base Rates, and Prediction. Wanted--A Good Cookbook. When Shall We Use Our Heads Instead of the Formula? Some Ruminations on the Validation of Clinical Procedures. Comparative Efficiency of Informal (Subjective, Impressionistic) and Formal (Mechanical, Algorithmic) Prediction Procedures: The Clinical-Statistical Controversy. Part IV: Taxometrics: Coherent Cut Kinetics. Factors and Taxa, Traits, and Types, Differences of Degree and Differences in Kind. Bootstraps Taxometrics: Solving the Classification Problem in Psychopathology. Clarifications About Taxometric Method. Part V: Thinking Clearly About Psychology. Philosophy of Science: Help or Hindrance? The Power of Quantitative Thinking. Why Summaries of Research on Psychological Theories Are Often Uninterpretable.