Ecosystem Dynamics focuses on long-term terrestrial ecosystems and their changing relationships with human societies. The unique aspect of this text is the long-time scale under consideration as data and insights from the last 10,000 years are used to place present-day ecosystem status into a temporal perspective and to test models that generate forecasts of future conditions. Descriptions and assessments of some of the current modelling tools that are used, along with their uncertainties and assumptions, are an important feature of this book. An overarching theme explores the dynamic interactions between human societies and ecosystem functioning and services.This book is authoritative but accessible and provides a useful background for all students, practitioners, and researchers interested in the subject.

Acknowledgements ixAbout the companion website xi1 Where Are We and How Did We Arrive Here? 11.1 Why this book? 11.2 Ecosystems in crisis 21.3 Relevance of the past 51.4 Forecasting the future 71.5 Chapter details and logic 91.6 For whom is the book intended? 121.7 Four key questions and the links to policy 132 Modelling 152.1 Introduction 152.1.1 How did these models develop? 162.1.2 Climate data, climate and earth system models 162.2 Background ecosystem, vegetation and species models 182.2.1 Vegetation models 182.2.2 Species-level modelling 252.2.3 Equilibrium physiologically-based modelling of species 272.2.4 Statistical equilibrium modelling of species 302.2.5 Some uncertainties and assumptions that apply generally to bioclimatic models 312.2.6 Models of intermediate complexity 322.2.7 Biogeochemistry integrated into equilibrium biome models 332.2.8 Integrating biome and NPP models 352.3 Dynamic modelling 362.3.1 Local to landscape scales: forest gap modelling 362.3.2 Regional to global scales: dynamic global vegetation modelling 382.4 Integrating models 442.4.1 Earth system models 442.4.2 Integrated assessment models 452.4.3 Agent-based models 482.5 Further reading 483 Data 493.1 Introduction 493.2 Which data are relevant? 503.3 Ecosystem dynamics: direct observation 513.3.1 Phenology 513.3.2 Biological monitoring 533.4 Ecosystem dynamics: indirect measurement or proxy data 563.4.1 Historical ecology 573.4.2 Palaeoecology 583.4.3 Pollen analysis 603.4.4 Charcoal and fire scars 633.5 Drivers of ecosystem dynamics 673.5.1 Palaeoclimates and greenhouse gases 673.5.2 Human impact on ecosystem dynamics 693.6 Databases 703.7 Gaps in available data and approaches 704 Climate Change and Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics: A Complex Relationship 734.1 Introduction 734.2 Reconstructing climate from biological data 744.3 The very long records of vegetation dynamics 784.4 Holocene records 814.5 Modelling of Holocene vegetation dynamics to help understand pollen data 834.5.1 Climate or people? The Tilia-Fagus transition in Draved Forest, Denmark 864.5.2 Climate or migration biology? The late-Holocene spread of Picea into southern Fennoscandia 874.5.3 Fagus in Europe 914.6 Simulating Fennoscandian Holocene forest dynamics 944.6.1 Holocene dynamics of the Sahara 984.7 Climate and megafaunal extinction 1014.7.1 Recent range shifts 1034.8 So how important is climate change for future millennial ecosystem dynamics? 1035 The Role of Episodic Events in Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics: Where the Wild Strawberries Grow 1095.1 Introduction 1095.2 Fire 1155.2.1 Past to present fire 1165.2.2 Present to future fire 1215.2.3 Modelling fire 1215.2.4 Modelling ignition 1225.2.5 Modelling fire spread 1245.2.6 Data-model comparison 1285.3 Forest pathogens during the Holocene 1315.4 Hurricanes and wind damage 1355.5 Conclusion 1396 The Impact of Past and Future Human Exploitation on Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics 1416.1 Introduction 1416.2 Denmark: case study of human impact during the Holocene 1466.3 Islands: sensitive indicators of human impact 1526.4 Human influence on Mediterranean, temperate and boreal forests 1576.5 The tropics 1636.6 Spatial upscaling of the timing and ecosystem consequences of human impact 1647 Millennial Ecosystem Dynamics and Their Relationship to Ecosystem Services: Past and Future 1737.1 Introduction 1737.2 MEA classification 1767.2.1 Provisioning services 1767.2.2 Regulating services 1777.2.3 Cultural services 1777.2.4 Supporting services 1777.3 The current crisis in ecosystem services 1797.3.1 How did we get here? A palaeo perspective 1817.3.2 Provisioning services in the past 1827.3.3 Regulating services in the past 1857.3.4 Cultural services in the past 1897.3.5 Supporting services in the past 1907.4 Ecosystem services and the future 1937.5 Relating the maintenance of biodiversity to ecosystem service provision 1977.6 Scenarios of possible futures: some different approaches 1977.6.1 IPCC Special report on emission scenarios 1997.6.2 MEA scenarios 2017.6.3 ALARM scenarios 2037.7 So what do scenarios say about the possible futures for ecosystem services? 2047.7.1 MEA scenarios 2047.7.2 SRES scenarios 2057.7.3 ALARM scenarios 2078 Cultural Ecosystem Services 2118.1 Introduction 2118.2 Sacred sites and species 2128.2.1 Some examples from around the globe 2148.3 Cultural landscapes: biodiverse relicts of former land use systems 2198.4 Hunting as a cultural ecosystem service 2219 Conservation 2259.1 Conservation as we know it 2259.2 Knowledge of the past: relevance for conservation 2289.2.1 Fire history, conservation and ecosystem restoration 2299.2.2 Ecosystem restoration 2349.2.3 The wood pasture debate 2359.2.4 Reference states or baselines? 2379.3 Conservation in practice: protected areas (Natura 2000) 2429.4 Conservation and alien or invasive species 2449.4.1 Alien species, climate change and conservation 2489.5 Global change, biodiversity and conservation in the future 2539.5.1 The Convention on biological diversity 2549.5.2 Atlas of biodiversity risk 2559.6 Conclusion 25710 Where Are We Headed? 25910.1 Introduction 25910.2 Emergent themes and important underlying concepts 26210.2.1 How have ecosystems changed in the past? 26210.2.2 How much of this change is attributable to human activities? 26310.2.3 How much change is anticipated for the future? 26410.2.4 What are the appropriate ecosystem management measures by which to prepare for the future? 265References 271Glossary 297Index 311