Strategic Survey 2020 is the indispensable guide to the events, actors and forces that defined an exceptionally complex year. It highlights the geopolitical issues that will shape the international agenda in 2021.

Chapter 1 Introduction 5Editor's Introduction 5Drivers of Strategic Change 7Chapter 2 Key Events 11Chapter 3 Strategic Prospects 17Chapter 4 Strategic Policy 252020: The Politics of Pandemic 25How has the most severe disease in a century shaped geopolitics?Shifting Attitudes Towards Multilateralism 38Cooperation is needed more than ever: why are its institutions under strain?Key International Legal Gaps 47What are they, and how can they be closed?Prospects for Arms Control 61Will the future resemble the past?Climate Change: Year of Reckoning, Postponed 70COVID-19 deferred action - but did it create an opportunity?Chapter 5 North America 79Drivers of Strategic Change 802019-20 Review 83US-China Relations 90No way back?Trump and the Transatlantic Relationship 100How far has US policy towards Europe changed?Chapter 6 Asia 109Drivers of Strategic Change 1102019-20 Review 113Japan's Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision at the Crossroads 130Will it endure after Abe?Hong Kong 139A triumph of experience over hope?Changes in Jammu and Kashmir 148What are the strategic implications?The US-Taliban Deal 160Will Afghanistan's peace process work?China's Strategic Ambitions in the South Pacific 168Past the peak?Chapter 7 Europe 179Drivers of Strategic Change 1802019-20 Review 183Germany's Foreign-policy Challenges 191How is the EU's largest state navigating global change?China's Influence in the European Union 200Why has the past year been so difficult?European Strategic Autonomy 210From symbolic to substantive?Chapter 8 Russia and Eurasia 219Drivers of Strategic Change 2202019-20 Review 223Russia: The Road to 2024 232What challenges face Putin and his system?Zelensky's First Year as Ukrainian President 242Is he fulfilling his promises?Central Asia: Connectivity, COVID-19 and Geopolitics 252What next for the Eurasian heartland's international ties?Chapter 9 Middle East and North Africa 263Drivers of Strategic Change 2642019-20 Review 267The New Geopolitics of the Red Sea 277Why is interest in the region resurging?The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Nile Geopolitics 288Will Africa's huge new dam create a crisis?Turkey's Force Generation Abroad 299How and why is Erdogan projecting power?Chapter 10 Sub-Saharan Africa 309Drivers of Strategic Change 3102019-20 Review 313Debt Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa 321How severe - and will Washington and Beijing help?South Africa's Difficult Choices 336Does 'Ramaphoria' have a future?Chapter 11 Latin America 345Drivers of Strategic Change 3462019-20 Review 349The Expansion of Brazilian Organised Crime 358How serious a threat to Latin American governance and beyond?Venezuela's Political Stalemate 367How long can it endure?Mexico's 'Fourth Transformation' 377Can López Obrador deliver change while distrusting institutions?Index 387