In Awkward Embrace, Phillip Swagel applies his experience at the Treasury Department to show the reader why America's economic relationship with China has been a beneficial one and details what needs to happen for this trend to continue. Daniel Blumenthal, a former official specializing in Asia at the Department of Defense, is far less optimistic when examining the military, diplomatic, and security ties the United States has-or lacks-with China. China's overall view of the West-and especially of America-is one of hostility and suspicion. Furthermore, China has engaged in military, diplomatic, and human rights actions that are objectionable to a nation such as the United States, which seeks to encourage the establishment of responsible government worldwide.The tension here is real: how can the United States manage this relationship in a way that keeps its economic engagement with China on a steady course but likewise protects its national security interests? Blumenthal and Swagel offer three possible paths for the U.S.-China relationship. In all of them, they strive to demonstrate how internal forces are shaping China's interactions with other nations, and, furthermore, how US leaders can attempt to attain a world order that includes a strong China that contributes positively, while nonetheless preparing for the worst-case-scenario of China engaging in more assertive and destabilizing behavior.

Contents Introduction 1 1. China's Rise to Rivalry 8 Why China's Rise Matters: U.S. Interests in the Asia-Pacific 8 What is a Rival in the Twenty-First Century? What is a Responsible Great Power? 11 Why China Behaves as a Strategic Rival: The Domestic Sources of Rival Behavior 15 Conclusion 28 2. The U.S.-China Relationship: A Security Analyst's Assessment 35 The Military Indicators of Rival Behavior 35 The Political Indicators of Rival Behavior 45 Conclusion 52 3. The U .S.-China Relationship: An Economist's Assessment 58 Broad U.S. Economic Interests with China 62 Responsible vs. Irresponsible Chinese Behavior 67 Near-Term Shared Interests, Long-Term Rivalry? 71 Conclusion 76 4. Potential Long-Term Outcomes: Three Scenarios for China's Future 80 Scenario 1: Optimistic 83 Scenario 2: Somewhat Pessimistic 92 Scenario 3: Very Pessimistic 95 Conclusion 99 5. Dealing with China in the Future 101 The Task for U.S. Policy 102 About the Authors