A unique "moneyball" look at the 2012 U.S. presidential contest between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney"Game changer." We heard it so many times during the 2012 U.S. presidential election. But what actually made a difference in the contest-and what was just hype? In this groundbreaking book, John Sides and Lynn Vavreck tell the dramatic story of the election-with a big difference. Using an unusual "moneyball" approach and drawing on extensive quantitative data, they look beyond the anecdote, folklore, and conventional wisdom that often pass for election analysis to separate what was truly important from what was irrelevant. The Gamble combines this data with the best social science research and colorful on-the-ground reporting, providing the most accurate and precise account of the election yet written-and the only book of its kind.In a new preface, the authors reflect on the place of The Gamble in the tradition of presidential election studies, its reception to date, and possible paths for future social science research.

List of Figures and Tables ix Preface to the Paperback Edition xiii Foreword by Charles T. Myers xix Acknowledgments xxi Chapter 1: Ante Up 1 Chapter 2: The Hand You're Dealt 11 Chapter 3: Random, or Romney? 32 Chapter 4: All In 64 Chapter 5: High Rollers 97 Chapter 6: The Action 141 Chapter 7: The Winning Hand 174 Chapter 8: Cashing In 226 Appendixes 243 Notes 273 Index 323