Expert Political Judgment

Besorgungstitel  |
 Lieferzeit: 3-5 Tage  
37,74 €

Alle Preise inkl. MwSt.
| zzgl. Versand
Acknowledgments ix Preface xi Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1 Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25 Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67 Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121 Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144 Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164 Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189 Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216 Methodological Appendix 239 Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273 Index 313
"This book is a landmark in both content and style of argument. It is a major advance in our understanding of expert judgment in the vitally important and almost impossible task of political and strategic forecasting. Tetlock also offers a unique example of even-handed social science. This may be the first book I have seen in which the arguments and objections of opponents are presented with as much care as the author's own position."--Daniel Kahneman, Princeton University, recipient of the 2002 Nobel Prize in economic sciences
Autor: Philip E. Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include "Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics" (Princeton).

Zu diesem Artikel ist noch keine Rezension vorhanden.
Helfen sie anderen Besuchern und verfassen Sie selbst eine Rezension.



Autor: Philip E. Tetlock
ISBN-13 :: 9780691128719
ISBN: 0691128715
Erscheinungsjahr: 01.07.2006
Verlag: Princeton University Press
Gewicht: 506g
Sprache: Englisch
Sonstiges: Taschenbuch, 234x155x22 mm
Google Plus
Powered by Inooga