Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for.Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.

Acknowledgments xv1 Introduction 11.1 About This Book, 11.2 Technology and Society, 21.2.1 Social Change, 31.2.2 Technological Change, 41.3 Management and the Future, 61.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes, 71.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting, 91.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting, 101.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting, 121.4 Conclusions, 13References, 132 Technology Forecasting 152.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?, 152.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion, 172.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context, 182.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good?, 202.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology, 212.2 Methodological Foundations, 232.2.1 The Technology Delivery System, 242.2.2 Inquiring Systems, 282.3 Technology Forecasting Methods, 312.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods, 332.3.2 Method Selection, 372.4 Conclusion, 37References, 383 Managing the Forecasting Project 403.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project, 403.1.1 The Technology Manager's Needs, 423.1.2 The Forecast Manager's Needs, 433.1.3 Information about Team Members, 443.2 Planning the Technology Forecast, 463.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications, 473.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast, 503.3.2 Communications, 543.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization, 553.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time, 563.5 Project Scheduling, 573.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), 583.5.2 Gantt Chart, 603.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC), 603.5.4 Project Scheduling Software, 613.6 Conclusions, 62References, 624 Exploring 654.1 Establishing the Context--the TDS, 654.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts, 664.1.2 Technology Context, 674.1.3 Stakeholders, 684.1.4 Understanding the TDS, 694.1.5 An Example TDS Model, 704.2 Monitoring, 724.2.1 Why Monitor?, 744.2.2 Who Should Monitor?, 754.2.3 Monitoring Strategy, 764.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues, 794.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development, 814.3 The Stimulation of Creativity, 814.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity, 814.3.2 Group Creativity, 924.4 Conclusion, 95References, 955 Gathering and Using Information 985.1 Expert Opinion, 995.1.1 Selecting Experts, 995.1.2 Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques, 1005.2 Gathering Information on the Internet, 1055.2.1 Science and Technology on the Internet, 1065.2.2 Society and Culture on the Internet, 1095.3 Structuring the Search, 1135.4 Preparing Search Results, 1165.5 Using Search Results, 1175.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators, 1195.6.1 Science and Technology Indicators, 1195.6.2 Social Indicators, 1225.7 Communicating Search Results, 1225.8 Conclusions, 123References, 1246 Analyzing Phase 1296.1 Perspective on Data and Methods, 1296.1.1 Overview and Caveats, 1306.1.2 Internet Time Series Data and Trends, 1326.1.3 Analytical Modeling, 1336.2 Linear Regression and Extensions, 1346.3 Growth Models, 1386.3.1 The Models, 1386.3.2 Dealing with the Data, 1436.3.3 Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong?, 1446.4 Simulation, 1456.4.1 Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 1466.4.2 Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis, 1526.5 Monte Carlo Simulation, 1536.5.1 Generating and Displaying Random Values, 1536.5.2 Sampling Multiple Random Variables, 1546.5.3 RFID Application in a Hospital Decision, 1566.6 System Dynamics, 1586.6.1 The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle, 1596.6.2 A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model, 1626.7 Gaming, 1646.7.1 Decision Trees, 1656.7.2 Bayesian Estimation, 1666.7.3 Value of Information, 1676.7.4 Real Options Analysis, 1696.8 Software Suggestions, 1706.8.1 Software for Regression, 1706.8.2 Simulation Analysis Software, 1706.8.3 Software for Analysis of Decisions, 1706.8.4 Real Options Super Lattice Software, 1706.8.5 Software Sites, 171References, 1717 Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis 1747.1 Uncertainty, 1757.1.1 Uncertainty Frameworks, 1757.1.2 Source and Nature of Uncertainty, 1767.1.3 Uncertainty and the Adaptive Paradigm, 1777.1.4 Techniques for Addressing Uncertainty, 1777.2 Scenarios, 1787.2.1 Steps in Creating Scenarios, 1787.2.2 Types of Scenarios, 1827.3 Examples and Applications, 1847.3.1 Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning, 1847.3.2 Pervasive Computing Scenarios, 1857.3.3 Scenarios for Social Change, 1867.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques, 1877.4.1 Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts, 1877.4.2 Extensions of Scenario Analysis, 1897.5 Conclusions, 191References, 1928 Economic and Market Analysis 1948.1 The Context, 1948.1.1 Markets and Innovation, 1978.1.2 Technology and Institutions, 1998.2 Forecasting the Market, 2038.2.1 The Consumer/Customer Marketplace, 2048.2.2 Qualitative Techniques for Appraising Market Potential, 2068.2.3 A Quantitative Approach--Adoption and Substitution: S-Curve Models, 2078.3 Forecasting the Economic Context, 2088.3.1 Macroeconomic Forecasting, 2098.3.2 Input-Output Analysis, 2108.3.3 General Equilibrium Models, 2148.3.4 Hedonic Technometrics, 2158.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context, 2168.4.1 Institutional Arrangements and the Market, 2168.4.2 Game Theory, 2188.4.3 Agent-Based Models, 2198.5 Conclusion, 219References, 2209 Impact Assessment 2239.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting, 2239.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology, 2249.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment, 2259.4 Impact Identification, 2269.4.1 Scanning Techniques, 2269.4.2 Tracing Techniques, 2279.4.3 Narrowing the Impact Set and Estimating Effects, 2299.4.4 A Final Word, 2299.5 Impact Analysis, 2309.5.1 Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology, 2309.5.2 Analyzing Technological Impacts, 2329.5.3 Analyzing Economic Impacts, 2349.5.4 Analyzing Environmental Impacts, 2349.5.5 Analyzing Social Impacts, 2389.5.6 Analyzing Institutional Impacts, 2399.5.7 Analyzing Political Impacts, 2409.5.8 Analyzing Legal and Regulatory Impacts, 2419.5.9 Analyzing Behavioral, Cultural, and Values Impacts, 2429.5.10 Analyzing Health-Related Impacts, 2439.6 Impact Evaluation, 2449.7 Conclusion, 245References, 24510 Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis 24810.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices, 24810.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis, 24910.2.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis within the Organization, 24910.2.2 Societal Stake and the Organizational Response, 25310.2.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods, 26010.2.4 Economic Value Added, 26310.2.5 Earned Value Management, 26410.2.6 The Balanced Scorecard, 26510.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty, 26510.3.1 Accounting for Risk within Organizations, 26510.3.2 Accounting for Risk--the Social Dimension, 26910.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase, 273References, 27411 Implementing the Technology 27711.1 Forecasting Continues, 27711.2 Implementation Issues, 27811.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation, 27811.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology, 27911.4.1 Measurement, 28211.4.2 Interpretive Structural Modeling, 28411.4.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process, 28511.4.4 Wrap-Up, 28611.5 Technology Roadmapping, 28611.6 Summary and Concluding Observations, 287References, 28712 Managing the Present from the Future 28912.1 The Overall Approach, 28912.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques, 29012.2.1 Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques, 29012.2.2 The 80-20 Rule, 29112.3 Alternative Perspectives, 29112.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments, 29312.5 Visions, 29512.6 A Final Word, 295References, 296Appendix A Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells 297A.1 Framing the Case Study, 297A.1.1 Characterizing the Technology, 298A.1.2 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells, 299A.2 Methods, 299A.2.1 Engaging Experts and Multipath Mapping, 299A.2.2 Developing the TDS, 300A.2.3 Tech Mining (Chapter 5) and Science Overlay Mapping, 304A.2.4 Trend Analyses, 310A.2.5 Cross-charting and Social Network Analyses, 311A.3 The Rest of the Story, 313A.3.1 Market Forecasts, 314A.3.2 Scenarios, 315A.3.3 Technology Assessment, 315A.3.4 Further Analyses and Communicating Results, 316References, 316Index 319