Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge aboutsome unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating thatinformation as a probability distribution. Elicitation is importantin situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclearinstallations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, whereexpert knowledge is essentially the only source of goodinformation. It also plays a major role in other contexts byaugmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesianstatistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, andpractitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findingsin order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably.Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding thereader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods,illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.This is achieved by:* Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation ofexpert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical andpsychological research.* Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range ofstandard distributions, appropriate to the most common types ofquantities.* Providing a comprehensive review of the available literatureand pointing to the best practice methods and future researchneeds.* Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics,psychology, engineering and health sciences.* Including an extensive glossary of statistical andpsychological terms.An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologistswith interests in expert judgement or practical applications ofBayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefitdecision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in themedical and social sciences.