What are the macroeconomic prospects for South Africa from 1994 until the new millennium? Two frameworks of macroeconomic modelling, associated with the World Bank and IMF, are used here to generate three scenarios, believed to represent the range of possible future directions of the South African economy. The study demonstrates that there is room for a developmental state, addressing the legacies of Apartheid such as poverty and inequality, within the confines of a stable macroeconomy. Although the scenarios produced may seem specific to South Africa, the methodology outlined is just as applicable to the policy-making process elsewhere. The IMF's Financial Programming and the World Bank's Revised Minimum Standard Model were central to many macroeconomic management studies of the 1980s, which focused on stabilization and structural adjustment. This study shows for the first time how they can be quantitatively applied and illustrates their strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, this volume can serve as a textbook in development economics courses. Moreover, the modelling skills acquired from this book will be equally relevant to those studying macroeconomic development and to government and aid practitioners involved in policy work.

1. Introduction 2. General Country Background 3. Accounting Framework and Base Year Data 4. Modelling Frameworks 5. Model Experiments 6. Base Run 7. Alternative Scenarios 8. Conclusion