The Illusion of Certainty: Health Benefits and Risks peels away the "veneer of certainty" which many of us attach to health risk and benefit information given to us in our daily lives. It was written and designed primarily to assist the public in comprehending and interpreting the uncertainty associated with the overwhelming amount of information on medical and environmental health risks. The book uses unique, visual presentations and case studies to explain the benefits of medical screening tests (e.g., mammography, prostate and colorectal cancer screening, cholesterol screening) and drugs (e.g., statins, Vioxx(TM)) and the risks associated with exposure to environmental contaminants (e.g., lead, dioxin, radon). This book will help patients and their families get more involved in making medical decisions, and citizens face critical questions about the environment. By putting the complexities of risk analysis in terms the general public can relate to, the authors are empowering people to make well-informed decisions.

"This book peels away the "veneer of certainty" which many of us attach to health risk and benefit information given to us in our daily lives. It was written and designed primarily to assist the public in comprehending and interpreting the uncertainty associated with the overwhelming amount of information on medical and environmental health risks. The book uses unique, visual presentations and case studies to explain the benefits of medical screening tests (e.g., mammography, prostate and colorectal cancer screening, cholesterol screening) and drugs (e.g., statins, Vioxx) and the risks associated with exposure to environmental contaminants (e.g., lead, dioxin, radon). This book will help patients and their families get more involved in making medical decisions, and citizens face critical questions about the environment. By putting the complexities of risk analysis in terms the general public can relate to, the authors are empowering people to make well-informed decisions. TOC:Part I:The Basics The Illusion of Certainty.-Cause and Effect vs. Risk Factors.-Reframing the Debate.-Assessing Human Health Risks from Environmental Contaminants.-The Sources of Uncertainty.-Part II: Case Studies VioxxTM and Heart Attacks.-Prostate Cancer Screening.-Elevated Cholesteral: A Primary Risk Factor for Heart Disease?.-Statins, Cholesterol, and Coronary Heart Disease.-Colorectal Cancer Screening.-Health Effects of Smoking.-Chlorination of Drinking Water Health Risks.-Exposure to Residential Radon and the Risk of Lung Cancer.-Ecological Risk Assessment.-Asian Oysters in the Chesapeake Bay.-Chronium and Sediment Toxicity.-Part III: Perspectives The Physician's and Patient's Perspective.-Acceptable Health Benefits and Risks.-Appendices Appendix A: A Brief Primer on Statistical Approaches for Quantifying Uncertainty.-Appendix B: Two Clinical Studies that Evaluated Blood Serum Cholesterol as a Risk Factor for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD).-Appendix C: Glossary.-References.-Index.-About the Authors."

Part I: The Basics.- 1. The Illusion of Certainty.- 2. Cause and Effect vs. Risk Factors.- 3. Reframing the Debate.- 4. Assessing Human Health Risks from Environmental Contaminants.- 5. The Sources of Uncertainty.- Part II: Case Studies.- 6. VioxxTM and Heart Attacks.- 7. Prostate Cancer Screening.- 8. Elevated Cholesterol: A Primary Risk Factor for Heart Disease?.- 9. Statins, Cholesterol, and Coronary Heart Disease.- 10. Colorectal Cancer Screening.- 11. Health Effects of Smoking.- 12. Chlorination of Drinking Water and Health Risks.- 13. Exposure to Residential Radon and the Risk of Lung Cancer.- 14. Ecological Risk Assessment.- 15. Asian Oysters in the Chesapeake Bay.- 16. Chromium and Sediment Toxicity.- Part III: Perspectives.- 17. The Physician's and Patient's Perspective.- 18. Acceptable Health Benefits and Risks.- Appendices.- Appendix A: A Brief Primer on Statistical Approaches for Quantifying Uncertainty.- Appendix B: Two Clinical Studies that Evaluated Blood Serum Cholesterol as a Risk Factor for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD).- Appendix C: Glossary.- References.- About the Authors.