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Statistical Demography and Forecasting
ISBN-13:
9780387283920
Veröffentl:
2006
Seiten:
412
Autor:
Juha Alho
Serie:
Springer Series in Statistics
eBook Typ:
PDF
eBook Format:
EPUB
Kopierschutz:
1 - PDF Watermark
Sprache:
Englisch
Beschreibung:
Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S.
"Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S.
Sources of Demographic Data.- Sampling Designs and Inference.- Waiting Times and Their Statistical Estimation.- Regression Models for Counts and Survival.- Multistate Models and Cohort-Component Book-Keeping.- Approaches to Forecasting Demographic Rates.- Uncertainty in Demographic Forecasts: Concepts, Issues, and Evidence.- Statistical Propagation of Error in Forecasting.- Errors in Census Numbers.- Financial Applications.- Decision Analysis and Small Area Estimates.
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