Throughout the second half of the twentieth century, the Gulf has been the scene - and sometimes the source - of international political and economic turmoil. Blatant intervention on the part of the Western powers in the domestic affairs of the eight regional states was a familiar feature from World War II until the British withdrawal in 1971, when it assumed more subtle forms. In addition, the oil shocks of the 1970s, followed closely by the Iranian revolution and the hostage crisis, triggered economic dislocations across the globe, as well as political upheaval and the disruption of a long-established security structure. In The Gulf at the Millennium , the most prominent Gulf specialists from both the Western world and the Gulf are brought together to look at this extraordinarily active and influential part of the world. The scholars identify and examine the issues that have the potential to affect future developments in the region, including the rapid demographic changes which are taking place, the relationship of the oil market to political stability and progress, the resurgence of Islam as a political force, the often heavy expenditures on defence, and new geostrategic realities after the end of the Cold War. A dynamic, crucial volume, The Gulf at the Millennium provides an unprecedented view beyond the media hype into what is perhaps the most volatile and controversial region of the world today.

Preface; Gary Sick & Lawrence Potter The Coming Crisis in the Gulf; Gary Sick The New Geo-Politics in the Gulf: Forces for Change and Stability; Richard K. Herrmann & R. William Ayres The Political Economy of National Security in the GCC States; F. Gregory Gause, III Oil and the Gulf: Alternative Futures; Paul Stevens The Emerging Private Sector: New Demands on an Old System; Karim Pakravan Border Disputes in the Gulf: Past, Present, and Future; Richard Schofield The Uprising in Bahrain: An Assessment; Munira Fakhro Does Iran Want Nuclear Weapons?; Shahram Chubin Iranian Military Capabilities and `Dual Containment'; Anthony Cordesman Confidence-Building Measures in the Persian Gulf; Lawrence Potter How Does Islam Govern? Diversity and Innovation in the Islamic States of the Gulf; Frank E. Vogel The Islamic Movement: The Case for Democratic Inclusion; Roy Mottahedeh Prospects for Conflict and Cooperation: The Gulf Towards the Year 2000; Anwar Gargash