Assembling a high profile group of scholars and practitioners, this book investigates the interplay of forecasting; warnings about, and responses to, known and unknown transnational risks. It challenges conventional accounts of 'failures' of warning and preventive policy in both the academic literature and public debate.

The book investigates how the harm arising from transnational risks can be best identified, communicated, understood, and prevented

Introduction: The Challenges of Prevention; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer PART I: FORECASTING HARM The Coastline of The Future: Some Limits on Forecasting and Prediction; D.Omand Epistemology of Forecasting in International Relations: Knowing the Difference between 'Intelligence Failure' and 'Warning Failure'; J.Goldman Foresec: Lessons Learnt from a Pan-European Security Foresight Project; V.Brummer , C.Burnley, H.Carlsen, A.Duta, B.Giegerich & R.Magoni Modelling Transnational Environmental Risks: Scenarios for Decision Support; F.Wagner Risk, Uncertainty and the Assessment of Organised Crime; T.Van Der Beken PART II: COMMUNICATING AND LEARNING FROM WARNINGS Mediatised Warnings: Late, Wrong, Yet Indispensable? Lessons from Climate Change and Civil War; C.De Franco & C.O.Meyer Do They Listen? Communicating Warnings: An Intelligence Practitioners Perspective; W.Shapcott Responding to early flood warnings in the European Union; D.Demeritt & S.Nobert Dark Secrets: Face-Work, Organizational Culture and Disaster Prevention; M.S.Gerstein & E.H.Schein PART III: RESPONDING TO WARNINGS Transnational Risk Management: A Business Perspective; C.Crossin & J.Smither From the 'Neurotic' to the 'Rationalising' State: Risk and the Limits of Governance; H.Rothstein, O.Borraz & M.Huber Ilos and Silences: The Role of Fragmentation in the Recent Financial Crisis; G.Tett Forecasting, Warning and Preventive Policy: The Case of Finance; T.F.Huertas Prospective Sense-Making: A Realistic Approach to 'Foresight for Prevention' in an Age of Complex Threats; W.H.Fishbein Conclusion: New Perspectives for Theorising and Addressing Transnational Risks; C.O.Meyer & C.De Franco