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Nuclear Weapons Counterproliferation

A New Grand Bargain
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Jack Garvey
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I. Introduction

A. The Need for a New Counterproliferation Foundation

B. The Old Grand Bargain Breakdown
i. The Goal of Nuclear Disarmament
ii. The Flawed Nexus of Nuclear Disarmament and
Nuclear Counterproliferation

C. Legitimacy; The Challenge of Asymmetric Possession of Nuclear Weapons

II. Futility of Nuclear Risk Management in a Purely Consensual Regime

A. Nuclear Terrorism

B. State-to-State Nuclear Weapons Risk

C. Risk Reduction by Consent

III. Security Council Mandate of Universal Standards

A. 'Global Legislation' by the United Nations Security Council
i. The Security Council as Global Legislator
ii. The Legal Debate
iii. The Legal Debate Enlightened by Political Realism
iv. Counterproliferation as Best Prospect for Security Council Legislation

B. Counterproliferation Beyond Current 'Legislation'
C.Universal Standards
i. Nuclear Security as an Independent International Interest
ii. No Classification of States
iii. International Administration of Universal Standards

IV. Elements of an Effective Counterproliferation Architecture

A. Expanding Deterrence; An International Nuclear Forensics Data Bank
i. Contemporary Nuclear Forensics Capability
ii. Expanded Deterrence
iii. The Legal and Institutional Empowerment of Nuclear Forensics

B. The Internationalization of Counterproliferation Intelligence
i. The Incongruity of National Intelligence Resources and Transnational Nuclear Risk
ii. The Imperative for International Institutionalization of Intelligence
iii. Feasibility

C. Export-Import Control
i. The Club that Cannot Counter-Proliferate
ii. Institutionalization of Export-Import Controls under Security Council Mandate

D. Internationalization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

E. Interdiction of Nuclear Weapons Related Transport; The Proliferation Security Initiative
i. Counterproliferation Designed to be Least Legal; 'An Activity, Not an Organization'
ii. Interface of the Proliferation Security Initiative and International Law
a. Coastal State Jurisdiction
b. High Seas Jurisdiction
c. Self-Defense
iii. Institutionalization of the Proliferation Security Initiative under Security Council Mandate; Legitimacy and Effectiveness

V. Compliance

VI. Political Will

VII. Conclusion
Nuclear Weapons Counterproliferation: A New Grand Bargain proposes a new legal and institutional framework for counterproliferation of nuclear weapons. Its proposal is designed to remedy the widely acknowledged breakdown of the architecture of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty on which we can no longer rely for global nuclear security.

First, Nuclear Weapons Counterproliferation defines the distinctively dangerous character of contemporary nuclear risk and explains why the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty no longer provides a viable foundation for counterproliferation of nuclear weapons. It then sets out the reforms needed in order to limit the radical increase in availability, for rogue governments and terrorists, of nuclear weapons related material and technology. Garvey proposes a new counterproliferation architecture, to be built on presently available scientific, legal, and institutional resources, which could achieve a critical reduction of nuclear risk and an expanded deterrence. Guiding principles for establishing this new architecture are formulated, including, most importantly, the principal mechanism for implementation, a United Nations Security Council Counterproliferation Resolution applying equally for all states.

This book presents what may be our best opportunity to secure a profoundly more effective global nuclear security and counter the world's current course to a catastrophic nuclear detonation.

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