Most people would probably agree on what should be done to avert severe climate change: The world must reduce CO2 emissions as much and as quickly as possible. But we must also ask what will be done. Is it realistic to expect worldwide emissions to fall rapidly enough to prevent severe climate change? And if we conclude it is not realistic, and so higher temperatures and rising sea levels are likely, what should we do? What actions should we take now to reduce the likely impact of climate change?Whatever climate policies are adopted, there will be a great deal of uncertainty over what will happen as a result. In Climate Future, Robert Pindyck, an authority on the economics of climate change and global catastrophes, explains what we know and what we don't know about the extent of climate change and its impact, why there is so much uncertainty, and what it means for climate policy. This book shows that given the economic and political realities, it is simply not realistic to expect emission reductions needed to avert substantial global warming. Pindyck argues that investments in adaptation-developing new hybrid crops, discouraging building in flood-prone or wildfire-prone areas, building sea walls and dikes, and geoengineering-are needed to insure against catastrophic climate change events. We should invest now in adaptation, and Pindyck shows how that can be done.

INTRODUCTION1.1 Averting and Adapting: The Basic Argument1.2 What Is Adaptation?1.2.1 Concerns about Adaptation1.2.2 Carbon Removal and Sequestration1.3 What Comes Next1.4 Further ReadingsCHAPTER 2: THE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM2.1 A Few Facts and Numbers2.2 An Optimistic Scenario2.3 The Bottom Line2.4 Further ReadingsCHAPTER 3: WHAT WE KNOWAND DON'T KNOWABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE3.1 The Social Cost of Carbon3.2 Climate Change Basics3.3 What We Know (or Sort of Know)3.3.1 What Drives CO2 Emissions?3.3.2 What Drives the Atmospheric CO2 Concentration?3.4 What We Don't Know3.4.1 Climate Sensitivity3.4.2 The Impact of Climate Change3.4.3 A Catastrophic Outcome3.5 Further ReadingsCHAPTER 4: THE ROLE OF UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE POLICY4.1 Implications of Uncertainty4.1.1 The Treatment of Uncertainty4.1.2 How Does Uncertainty Affect Climate Policy?4.1.3 The Value of Climate Insurance4.1.4 The Effects of Irreversibilities4.2 Further Readings4.3 Appendix to Chapter 4: Effects of IrreversibilitiesCHAPTER 5: CLIMATE POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT CAN WE EXPECT?5.1 CO2 Emission Reductions5.1.1 The United States5.1.2 The U.K. and Europe5.1.3 China5.1.4 The Global Picture5.2 CO2, Methane, and Temperature Change5.2.1 The Warming Effect of CO2 Emissions5.2.2 Methane Emissions5.2.3 The Warming Effect of Methane Emissions5.3 Temperature Change Scenarios5.3.1 Changes in Temperature5.3.2 Implications of Uncertainty5.4 Rising Sea Levels5.5 Summary5.6 Further Readings5.7 Appendix to Chapter 5: Temperature ScenariosCHAPTER 6: WHAT TO DO: REDUCING NET EMISSIONS6.1 How to Reduce Emissions6.1.1 A Carbon Price6.1.2 Government Subsidies6.1.3 Government Mandates6.1.4 Cap-and-Trade6.1.5 How Large a Carbon Tax?6.1.6 An International Agreement6.1.7 Research & Development6.2 Nuclear Power6.3 Removing Carbon6.3.1 Trees, Forests, and CO26.3.2 Carbon Removal and Sequestration6.3.3 The Bottom Line6.4 Further ReadingsCHAPTER 7: WHAT TO DO: ADAPTATION7.1 Adaptation in Agriculture7.1.1 What Can the Data Tell Us?7.1.2 An Historical Experiment7.1.3 What To Expect?7.2 Hurricanes, Storms, and Rising Sea Levels7.2.1 Flooding and Its Impact7.2.2 Physical Barriers to Flooding7.2.3 Natural Barriers to Flooding7.2.4 Private and Public/Private Adaptation7.2.5 Flood Insurance7.2.6 Flood Risk in Asia7.2.7 What to Expect?7.3 Solar Geoengineering7.3.1 How It Would Work7.3.2 How Much Would It Cost?7.3.3 Problems with Solar Geoengineering7.3.4 What to Do?7.4 Can Adaptation Solve Our Climate Problem?7.5 Climate Future7.6 Further ReadingsBibliography